Ex-Battlefield boss: Ubisoft and Take-Two may not survive the switch

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Former Battlefield franchise executive producer Ben Cousins has tossed in his two-pence (translation for American readers: "ten cents") on whether traditional games publishing can survive the switch to a market dominated by digital distribution. EA's not doing too badly, apparently, but Grand Theft Auto publisher Take Two and Ubisoft need to straighten themselves out. The Gamasutra interview in question was conducted immediately prior to THQ's collapse, so Cousins' comments don't take into account stuff like the always-online Sim City debacle, or the recent fuss over micro-transactions.

"When I was at EA, the public view - and it was also used internally - was that they would transform EA from a packaged goods business into a digital business, and they would always talk about higher margins on digital," he began.
"And for me that was never really going to be viable, I don't think, just because of that cost of transformation. For me, the best case for a company like EA is just to survive it, at the moment. And you look at how the traditional revenues are declining and digital is increasing, but the top-line revenue is basically staying static.
"I mean that's not a profit growth, right? The digital side of the business [has to outpace] the packaged goods decline in order for them to get growth out of it."
EA posted a net loss of $45 million for the three months ending 31st December 2012, following a revenue drop from $1.06 billion in the same period last year to $922 million. "The revenue shortfall was a result primarily of a miss with our Medal of Honor title and stronger than expected sector headwinds for console packaged goods," CEO John Riccitiello told analysts in an earnings call, via Reuters. Digital revenues were up 23 per cent on last year to $86 million.
Cousins reckons it's too early to say just who will be top dog down the road, but suggests that today's behemoths may be eclipsed by companies that have only just come into existence. "I think EA are in the best place of all the traditional publishers to survive, but we're not talking about big players," he went on.

"I don't think that any of the [independent] publishers at the moment will be big players in 10 years' time; I think there will be either companies that have just emerged or whom haven't been founded yet. Ubisoft, I think are in a really dangerous position, and Take-Two are in a dangerous position, THQ obviously aren't going to be around for much longer I don't think."
He was right about that one - but are Ubisoft and Take-Two really in so terrible a state? The one pulled in €802 million in revenues during its most recent third quarter, thanks in part to a jump in online revenues of 143 per cent (€55.2 million). The other isn't looking quite so prosperous, but has GTA to fall back on. What do you think?
Source: OXM
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